ABIO10 PGTW 250930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/250930Z-251800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/250751ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242151ZFEB2022//
NARR/ REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLCONE WARNING. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: 
      (1) AT 25FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 14S (VERNON) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 94.4E, APPROXIMATELY 176 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS 
ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
250900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 128.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
400NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241938Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS ELONGATED, 
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 241339 ASCAT-B PARTIAL IMAGE SHOWS 25-30 KT WINDS 
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (30-
31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THESE ARE OFFSET BY UNFAVORABLE (25-
30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS DEPICTED ON THE 1800Z CIMSS DEEP LAYER 
WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS. OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT REPORT 15KT 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM MEANDERS IN THE GULF OF BONAPARTE OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE 
REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 242200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.         
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.2S 88.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 89.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
450NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULITSPECTRAL IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WHILE RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALED 25-30KTS WINDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE AFORMENTIONED LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30C)SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 
MODERATE POLEWARD OUFLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK 
EAST, BUT FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS COMPLICATED AS 93S WILL HAVE TO 
COMPETE WITH ITS TWIN SYSTEM, 92S. THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR 93S 
TO INTENSIFY AND REACH 35KTS AS THE TWO STORMS BEGIN BINARY 
INTERACTION AND DANCE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.  
	(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS: NONE.
  	C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(REMNANTS OF TC 13S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 28.7S 41.8E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 29.7S 41.7E, APPROXIMATELY 385NM SOUTH OF TOLIARA, 
MADAGASCAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL 
STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-
LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED, ELONGATED AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD DEFORMATION ZONE DISPLACED TO 
THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POOR ENVIRONMENT FOR 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH A STRONG GRADIENT OF VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (20-50KTS) DECAPITATING THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FEATURES AND 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (18-20C). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 
THE REMNANTS OF 13S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD, STRETCH, BECOME 
ASYMETRICAL, AND FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE INDICATING 
TROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BE UNLIKELY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 38-43 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE 
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER 
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPCIAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. 
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.A.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.// 
NNNN