WTXS21 PGTW 241400 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242200ZFEB22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 242200)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.2S 95.9E TO 15.1S 93.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.4S 95.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S; PREVIOUSLY 90S) 
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 13.0S 96.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 
95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 84NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 241159Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE TOWERS 
SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE 
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, BURGEONING POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL 
TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
251400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 12.4S 128.4E
//
NNNN