ABIO10 PGTW 241330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/241400Z-241800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL 
CYLCONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 43.5E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA 
ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
        AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR   
13.1S 128.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 128.6E, APPROXIMATELY 132NM 
WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 241017Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DISORGANIZED AND 
DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A POORLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND LOW (05-10KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT INCREASING RAPIDLY TO THE 
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS DEPICTED ON CCIMS WIND SHEAR 
PRODUCT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
INTENSIFICATION AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT OF 99S OVER 
THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.           
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  
NEAR 13.0S 96.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 95.9E, APPROXIMATELY 84NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 241159Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS 
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHILE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE TOWERS SPIRALING INTO THE LOW LEVEL 
VORTEX. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BURGEONING 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT 
CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE  NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED 
TO HIGH. SEE REF B(WTXS21 PGTW 241400) FOR FUTHER DETAILS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM AND 
UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(2) TO HIGH.//
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