ABIO10 PGTW 240730 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN /REISSUED/240730Z-241800ZFEB2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231951ZFEB2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 23FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7S 43.5E, APPROXIMATELY 236 NM SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 232100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.7S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231030Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A FLARING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST OF A SLOW, ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT IN THE TIMOR SEA RECORDED SUSTAINED 18KT NORTHERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT OF 99S OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 96.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 66 NM SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATNG OVER A PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATED A VERY SMALL CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE(15- 20KTS) EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONSOLIDATES AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN 2.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.// NNNN