ABIO10 PGTW 231800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/231800Z-241800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230751ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.6S 46.3E, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 60 KNOTS GUSTING TO 75 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
230900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
12.7S 128.4E, APPROXIMATELY 143 NM WEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.. 
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231030Z SSMIS 
91GHZ IMAGE REVEAL A FLARING, DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST OF A SLOW, 
ANTICYCLONICALLY TURNING MASS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT 
THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT 
DEFINED BY PRONOUNCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, FAVORABLE (10-15KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM PT. FAWCETT IN THE TIMOR SEA RECORDED 
SUSTAINED 18KT NORTHERLY WINDS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
REGARDING THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERALLY QUASISTATIONARY MOVEMENT 
OF 99S OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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