ABIO10 PGTW 181800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/181800Z-191800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 61.3E, APPROXIMATELY 412 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT 
LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
181500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION 
(INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 25.4S 86.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 
27.7S 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 1520 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PERTH, 
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 
181316Z SSMIS 91GHZ BULLSEYE MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). FURTHER SATELLITE ANALYSIS 
REVEALS INVEST 97S IS SHOWING FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT HAS 
BEGUN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. A 171542Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWS A 
SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC SURROUNDED BY AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD WITH 
40 KTS INDICATED IN ALL QUADRANTS WITH SPOTTY AREAS OF 45 KTS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET AS INVEST 97S CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO 
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR (20-30KTS) AND COOLER SEAS (25-
26C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL TRANSIT TO 
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS AN EXTRA-TOPICAL SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 986 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//     
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