ABIO10 PGTW 180330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/180330Z-181800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18FEB22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (EMNATI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 13.4S 63.0E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM NORTHEAST OF PORT 
LOUIS, MAURITIU, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:   
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 20.7S 88.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
917NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 180047Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE 
IMAGE DEPICT LARGE FRONTAL BANDING  ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF A 
BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-20 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL SOON 
BE ENTERING SSTS LESS THAN 26C. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE GFS, ECMWF, 
AND NAVGEM ARE IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT 
ENTERS THE MID-LATITUDES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 997 MB. IN VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS 
SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM. SEE REF B 
(WTXS22 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.   
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: DOWNGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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