WTXS22 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170251ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 170300). THE AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 20.7S 88.5E IS NOW 
LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 917NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 
180047Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT LARGE FRONTAL 
BANDING  ON THE EASTERN PORTION OF A BROAD, POORLY-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(15-20 KTS). ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL SOON BE ENTERING SSTS 
LESS THAN 26C. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE GFS, ECMWF, AND NAVGEM ARE 
IN AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 
HOURS AND BEGINNING SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE MID-
LATITUDES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. IN 
VIEW OF THE UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO MEDIUM.
//
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