WTXS22 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160300Z FEB 22//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS22 PGTW 
160300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.0S 89.6E TO 25.3S 87.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.4S 89.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY  
597NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 162240Z SSMIS 
91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WEAK CONVECTIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED MONSOONAL STRUCTURED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW AND (10KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
ARE CONDUCIVE AT 27-28C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE 
INTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING ASSESSED 
AS A MONSOON DEPRESSION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONSOLIDATING INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
180300Z.
//
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