ABIO10 PGTW 162130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/162130Z-171800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161951ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 16FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (THIRTEEN) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 14.1S 68.4E, APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF 
DIEGO GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 162100) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:   
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0S 69.2E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. 
SEE PARA. 2.A.(1) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY  
478NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 152253Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. INVEST 97S APPEARS TO 
HAVE A MONSOON DEPRESSION TYPE STRUCTURE DUE TO THE BROAD WINDFIELD 
WITH MAX WINDS REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL 
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY 
HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD 
TRACK OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 160300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.     
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
WARNING STATUS.//
NNNN