ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/161800Z-171800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152251ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/160251ZFEB2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 72.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 69.2E, APPROXIMATELY 758NM
EAST NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152114Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE 
REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING 
INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30C), AND 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH RAPID CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
152300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.      
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.3S 89.7E, APPROXIMATELY  
478NM WEST SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 152253Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, 
DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS 
OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25 
TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK 
OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS22 PGTW 160300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.     
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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