WTXS22 PGTW 160300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/152251ZFEB22// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S).// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 220 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.8S 92.1E TO 20.7S 88.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 160230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 91.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 91.7E, APPROXIMATELY 362 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 152253Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ABOUT THE INTENSIFICATION AND GENERAL SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 170300Z. 4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 72.0E.// NNNN