WTXS21 PGTW 152300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S).//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S 72.0E TO 14.4S 62.8E WITHIN THE 
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED 
TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 152230Z INDICATES THAT A 
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 72.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING 
WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS. 
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.0S 72.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 72.0E, APPROXIMATELY 412 
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 152114Z ATMS 88.2GHZ IMAGE REVEALS DEEP 
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN 
QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 
CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30C), AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH RAPID 
CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
162300Z.//
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