ABIO10 PGTW 151800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-161800ZFEB2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZFEB2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: (1) AT 15FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 50.4E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 73.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 72.3E, APPROXIMATELY 402 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSITIONED NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF A REGION OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151350Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO 30C), AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SIGNIFICANT CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 98.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 314 NM SOUTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, WEAKLY-ORGANIZED LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 151218Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 151559Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE WITH DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (25 TO 35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN