ABIO10 PGTW 151600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/REISSUED/151600Z-151800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN 
PEARL HARBOR HI/150751ZFEB2022//AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15FEB22 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (DUMAKO) WAS 
LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9S 50.4E, APPROXIMATELY 204 NM NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, 
MADAGASCAR, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 150900) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 
14.6S 75.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 73.5E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM 
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) QUICKLY 
CONSOLIDATING AND SEPARATING FROM THE WESTERN END OF THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. A 151350Z GPM 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED TIGHT LOW 
LEVEL 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE VERY SMALL CORE, WITH THE PREDOMINANCE OF 
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. THE OVERALL 
ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH CONDUCIVE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OF 28 TO 30C, AND GOOD DIVERGENT OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET 
BY 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) EASTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A WEST 
TO 
WESTSOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH CONSIDERABLE CONSOLIDATION AND 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.4S 105.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.1S 98.4E, APPROXIMATELY  
196 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 141013Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A WEAKLY-DEFINED 
LLC WITH FORMATIVE, FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST 
QUADRANT. A 141440Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED 
CIRCULATION WITH AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A SMALL REGION OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS 
DISPLACED 200NM TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN 
UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE WITH VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WEAK 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RANGES FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CONDUCIVE AT 28 TO 30C. GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.     
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADE INVEST 96S TO MEDIUM. //
NNNN