ABIO10 PGTW 121800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/121800Z-131800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR12.1S 63.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.2S 62.2E, APPROXIMATELY 444NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BUILDING CONVECTION OBSCURING 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 121441Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A CONTINUING IMPROVEMENT IN 
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, WITH A STRONG FEEDER BAND PERSISTING OVER 
THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE LLC. UNFORTUNATELY, NO ASCAT DATA 
WAS AVAILABLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES MARGINAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (28-29C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW - MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. GFS HAS BACKED OFF 
COMPLETELY, NOT DEPICTING THE STORM TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE 
STRENGTH BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL. ECMWF IS PERSISTING WITH ITS 
SOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN 48-72HRS. THIS 
DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF 94S AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO 
A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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