ABIO10 PGTW 111800 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZFEB2022// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.4S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111130Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 63.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 563NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111135Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW - MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN CURRENT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OF 94S. ECMWF IS TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS CURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLEY AS THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 94S AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS TO LOW. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// NNNN