ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
17.4S 101.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 101.6E, APPROXIMATELY 398NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111130Z SSMIS 91GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS  
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL 
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
A LOW, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.1S 63.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 563NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111135Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE 
IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OBSCURED BY FLARING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE DISTURBANCE. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 
DEVELOPMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CURRENTLY, WITH WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW - MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN 
CURRENT DISAGREEMENT AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE OF 94S. ECMWF IS 
TAKING A MORE AGGRESSIVE APPROACH WITH THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING TO 
TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. HOWEVER, GFS 
CURRENTLY SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS 
TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE, THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSLEY AS 
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF 94S AS IT CONTINUES TO 
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO A MORE FAVORABLE AREA OF WIND SHEAR. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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