ABIO10 PGTW 110330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN/PEARL/HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/REISSUED/110330Z-111800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
   (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.67 106.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 429NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, 
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   (2)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
11.0S 62.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 63.3E, APPROXIMATELY 621NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION 
PERSISTS OVER AN OBSCURED AND BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND AS 
SUCH THE INITIAL POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 102358Z SSMIS PARTIAL MICROWAVE PASS 
FURTHER SUPPORT THE EXISTENCE OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE AREA 
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL BANDING AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), WEAK 
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. 
AS FOR THE DYNAMIC MODELS, ECMWF HAS SHOWN UNUSUAL AGGRESSION IN THE 
GENESIS OF 94S AND IN PARTICULAR ECMWF HAS OUTPACED GFS IN REGARD TO 
THE NEAR TERM DEVELOPMENT TIMELINE. HOWEVER RECENTLY GFS HAS JOINED 
THE CONVERSATION, ACCELERATED THE GENESIS TIMELINE FOR 94S TO BE IN 
MORE AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, INDICATING DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 48-
72 HOURS. BE THAT AS IT MAY, DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN 94S 
POSITION, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND STRONG GLOBAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS PUT THIS SYSTEM IN HOT WATER WITH DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED IN 
THE NEAR TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1011 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(2) TO LOW//
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