ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
16.67 106.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 104.1E, APPROXIMATELY 429NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 101147Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT WEAK CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, 
CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(SST) BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 
A LOW PROBABILITY, BUT NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
SYSTEM TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL 
CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYLCONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
NNNN