WTXS21 PGTW 100100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT(INVEST 93S) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEAR HARBOR HI/090251ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYLCONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.6S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.7S 106.6E, APPROXIMATELY  
390NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) AND A PARTIAL 100015Z GMIS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH WEAK CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE ENVIRONMENT 
IS MARGINAL, CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE 
BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE MAJORITY NOW 
INDICATING RELATIVELY SMALL PROBABILITIES FOR THE SYSTEM REACHING 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL HOWEVER 
REMAIN WELL DEFINED FOR THE NEAR-TERM AND IS EXPECTED TO 
TRANSIT GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE 
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYLCONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
//
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