ABIO10 PGTW 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/090400Z-091800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090251Z FEB 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 090300)//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.0S 105.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
375 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 
082322Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY FAVORABLE CHARACTERIZED BY 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF 
DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 080300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TCFA FOR AREA IN PARA 2.B.
(1).//
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