WTXS21 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080251Z FEB 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 080300)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.4S 105.6E TO 17.9S 103.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 16.6S 105.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 16.9S 105.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.6S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 
375 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS OBSCURED BY PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 
082322Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS THE DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY FAVORABLE CHARACTERIZED BY 
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW TO MODERATE 
(10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. 
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MARGINALLY WEAKENING SYSTEM AS IT 
INTERACTS WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. GFS AND ECMWF 
DETERMINISTIC PREDICT INVEST 93S ATTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH 
FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
100300Z.//
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