WTPS21 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.9S 166.9E TO 20.5S 168.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.9S 167.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 19.7S 165.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 167.0E, APPROXIMATELY 
152 NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
IMAGERY AND A 071428Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC).  IN ADDITION, THERE ARE 
DEEP, FRAGMENTED POCKETS OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN 
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, 
MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE GFS, NAVGEM, AND JMA 
ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST 92P GRADUALLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AND TRACKS EAST TOWARD FIJI. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090300Z.
//
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