WTXS21 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.7S 105.6E TO 19.1S 105.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 105.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.5S 105.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 105.5E, APPROXIMATELY 
203 NM SOUTH OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND 
A 072335Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) 
WITH DEEP BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. IN ADDITION, THERE IS 
BROAD, DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PERIPHERIES 
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO INCLUDE FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE INVEST 93S IS A COMPACT 
SYSTEM THAT WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWEST SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
090300Z.
//
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