ABIO10 PGTW 071800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/071800Z-081800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/071351ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 41.8E, APPROXIMATELY 169 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 071500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.5S 105.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 64 
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR. A 070159Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS A CONSOLIDATING 
WIND FIELD WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN 
QUADRANTS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, CHRISTMAS ISLAND IS REPORTING 
INCREASING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, CURRENTLY 15KTS SUSTAINED 
GUSTING TO 25KTS, WITH A 2 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DROP. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VWS. ALTHOUGH GLOBAL MODELS 
INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, INVEST 93S IS A 
COMPACT, WELL-DEFINED AND SHALLOW SYSTEM WHICH MAY NOT BE RESOLVED 
WELL BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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