ABPW10 PGTW 070600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/070600Z-080600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.4S 160.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 165.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
180NM SOUTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY-EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE AND FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE CENTER. A 
070233Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED CENTER WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING 
OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. UPPER-ANALYSIS REVEALS A POINT SOURCE TO 
THE SOUTHEAST, WHICH IS PRODUCING VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW BUT 
MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29C. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, GLOBAL 
MODELS SHOW AN INITIAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THEN QUASI-STATIONARY 
PERIOD EAST OF NEW CALEDONIA WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION AND 
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NEAR 
FIJI DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE 
ZONE (SPCZ), WHICH EXTENDS EAST INTO THE TONGA AREA (THIS MAY 
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE TONGA REGION). MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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