ABIO10 PGTW 070530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/070530Z-071800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070151ZFEB2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/061952ZFEB2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 07FEB22 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 23.1S 42.2E, APPROXIMATELY 123 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF 
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 070300) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 06FEB22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (CLIFF) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 23.2S 78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO 
GARCIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTXS32 PGTW 062100) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: 
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
10.5S 105.1E, APPROXIMATELY 27 NM WEST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT, DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IN 
THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTOR. A 070159Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS A 
CONSOLIDATING WIND FIELD WITH 25-30KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND 
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, CHRISTMAS ISLAND IS 
REPORTING INCREASING NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, CURRENTLY 15KTS 
SUSTAINED GUSTING TO 25KTS, WITH A 2 MB SEA LEVEL PRESSURE DROP. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE INVEST IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) VWS. ALTHOUGH 
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD TRACK AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE 
UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IMPROVES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, INVEST 93S 
IS A COMPACT, WELL-DEFINED AND SHALLOW SYSTEM WHICH MAY NOT BE 
RESOLVED WELL BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED MEDIUM AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1).//
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