ABPW10 PGTW 050600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/050600Z-060600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.7S 152.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.7S 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
205 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED, DISORGANIZED 
DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEST-NORTHWEST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST 
ORIENTED FRONTAL SYSTEM. A 050347Z AMSR2 36GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS NO DISCRETE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH 
HIGHLY DISORGANIZED SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CORAL 
SEA. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED WITHIN A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH 
UNDER MODERATE WESTERLIES WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE TO THE NORTH 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS 
LOW TO MODERATE WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD 
TOWARD VANUATU ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS 
WITHIN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TWO DAYS, NUMERICAL 
MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT SOME DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AS THE 
DISTURBANCE TRACKS UNDER A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. 
THIS ZONE WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY, AS A COMPLEX ENVIRONMENT COULD 
LEAD TO MULTIPLE CIRCULATIONS FORMING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY WITHIN THE 
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF NEW 
CALEDONIA, VANUATU, FIJI, AND TONGA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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