ABIO10 PGTW 021800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/021800Z-031800ZFEB2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZFEB2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02FEB22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S (BATSIRAI) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 18.9S 56.7E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF 
PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE 
ESTIMATED AT 125 KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 
021500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 18.6S 80.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0S 81.0E, APPROXIMATELY 806 
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS GENERALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-
20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 90S 
WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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