WTPS21 PGTW 311100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 98P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.2S 151.1E TO 14.8S 155.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310601Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 151.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.4S 150.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.3S 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 
145 NM NORTH NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED EIR SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WITH 
DEEP CONVECTION THAT REMAINS FRAGMENTED AS SHOWN IN A 0854Z SSMIS 
PASS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VWS AND SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW. 
DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-
24HRS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
011100Z.
//
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