ABPW10 PGTW 310600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/310600ZJAN2022-010600ZFEB2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.2S 149.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.4S 150.7E, APPROXIMATELY 
123 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF WILLIS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
IMAGERY AND A 0330Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A PERSISTENT 
DEEP CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DISPLACED 
SOUTHWARD FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. AT 310532Z WILLIS ISLAND 
REPORTED 17-KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND A RECENT METOP-B 
ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15 TO 20-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND WESTERN 
PERIPHERIES AROUND AN ELONGATED, PARTLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION UNDER 
THE DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD SOUTHEASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (30-31C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURE OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 
NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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