ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 11.5N 114.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 114.2E, APPROXIMATELY 
418 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF 
A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY SURGE. LARGE BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXIST 
TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LOOSELY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). A 280156Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS 
DISORGANIZED DEEPER CONVECTIVE REGION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
THE APPARENT CENTER. LOW LEVEL BANDING IS EVIDENT IN ALL QUADRANTS 
WITH THE MOST CONSOLIDATED TO THE WEST WITHIN THE SURGE EVENT AND TO 
THE NORTH NEAR THE CONVECTIVE BURST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OFFSET BY LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES 
(10-15KT). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK POLEWARD AND 
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS 
WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ALOFT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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