ABIO10 PGTW 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/262200Z-271800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/262121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.0S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
866NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A CONSOLIDATED CORE OF CONVECTION 
HAS DISTINGUISHED ITSELF FROM THE MONSOONAL CONVERGENCE TO THE 
NORTH; FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE PLUMES ROTATING ABOUT THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK TO 
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT 
CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION 
ALERT.
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