WTXS21 PGTW 262130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252121Z JAN 22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 252130)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.1S 90.7E TO 16.3S 84.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 84.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.0S 86.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 84.9E, APPROXIMATELY 
866NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. A CONSOLIDATED CORE OF CONVECTION 
HAS DISTINGUISHED ITSELF FROM THE MONSOONAL CONVERGENCE TO THE 
NORTH; FURTHERMORE, ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS TWIN CONVECTIVE PLUMES ROTATING ABOUT THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO 
INDICATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WEAK TO 
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT 
CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-36 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
272130Z.
//
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