ABIO10 PGTW 261800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/261800Z-271800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/252121ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.2S 90.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.0S 86.6E, APPROXIMATELY 627 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 261059Z SSMIS 92GH IMAGE DEPICTS WELL 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL, WELL DEFINED CENTER 
WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION PRIMARILY LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL INTENSIFY 
AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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