WTXS21 PGTW 252130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242121ZJAN22//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 89.9E TO 13.5S 87.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 251800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.2S 90.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 12.9S 90.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.2S 90.6E, APPROXIMATELY 374 
NM WEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVERHEAD OF AN OBSCURED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE 
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY FAIR OUTFLOW ALOFT 
AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30KT) VWS TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 96S 
WILL CONSOLIDATE AS IT CONTINUES ON ITS SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 242130). 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
262130Z.
//
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