WTXS21 PGTW 242130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.1S 89.9E TO 13.5S 87.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 241800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 89.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.8S 89.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4S 89.8E APPROXIMATELY 424 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241910Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC). A BULLSEYE 241603Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS ASSYMETRIC INCREASED 
WINDS OF 30KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF 96S. HOWEVER, 96S 
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH 
TROUGH LIKE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 
KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR 
RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT INVEST 96S WILL 
CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
252130Z.//
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