ABIO10 PGTW 241800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/241800Z-251800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241351ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 24JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (ANA) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 16.3S 38.8E, APPROXIMATELY 153 NM SOUTHWEST OF NACALA, 
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 241500) FOR THE FINAL 
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 89.8E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 241213Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION NORTH OF A OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). A BULLSEYE 241516Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 
ASSYMETRIC INCREASED WINDS OF 30KTS WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE 
OF 96S. HOWEVER, 96S REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC 
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH TROUGH LIKE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-
30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE 
TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING 
OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON 
A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE 
AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO 
MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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