ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.4N 129.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6N 126.5E, APPROXIMATELY 103 
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 240410Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DISPLAY 
SOME ORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES OVERALL 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEING OFFSET BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 91W AND DESPITE THE 
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, LIMITED TIME OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER MINDANAO INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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