ABIO10 PGTW 240030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE 
INDIAN REISSUED/OCEAN/240030Z-241800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 23JAN22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (SEVEN) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.5S 44.2E, APPROXIMATELY 212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NACALA, 
MOZAMBIQUE, AND HAD TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 
KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 231500) FOR 
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 9.2S 89.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6S 89.4E, APPROXIMATELY 460NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STRONG BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION 
WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). ANALYSIS INDICATES THERE IS A MARGINAL 
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) TO THE NORTH OF 96S AND MODERATE TO WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VWS TO 
THE SOUTH. THE STRONG VWS IS BEING OFFSET BY FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW, 
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK WITH GFS PREDICTING MORE AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 
36-48 HOURS AS 96S MOVES INTO MORE FAVORABLE VWS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3.JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
NNNN