WTXS21 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED// REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151Z JAN 22// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED (WTXS21 PGTW 220200)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.5S 47.1E TO 16.2S 39.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 46.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 48.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 46.7E, APPROXIMATELY 91NM NORTHWEST OF ANTANANAVIRO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATED AND COMPACT AREA OF WRAPPING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 232100Z. // NNNN