ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN 221800Z-231800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.8S 50.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 48.4E, APPROXIMATELY  
112NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANAVIRO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSILIDATED AND COMPACT 
AREA OF WRAPPING CONVECTION OVER AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). 93S IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH ITS STRONG RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND DIVERGENCE BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE THE SYSTEM 
WILL TRACK WEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND INTENSIFY ONCE OVER THE 
WARM WATERS OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. 
SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 220200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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