WTXS21 PGTW 220200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93S) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210151Z JAN 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8S 53.8E TO 17.8S 48.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 220000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.8S 53.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.9S 57.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.4S 56.5E, APPROXIMATELY  
273NM NORTHWEST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 21JAN2158Z AMSR2 89HZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT FLARING 
DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (29-31C), BEING OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE  WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
230200Z.
//
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