ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/211800Z-221800ZJAN2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HAROR HI/210151ZJAN2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 15.9S 57.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 54.6E, APPROXIMATELY 252 
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LA REUNION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTH OF 
A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 211222Z 
SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS MINOR LOWER LEVEL BANDING. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30KT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC 
MODELS INDICATE CONSOLIDATION AND INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 210200) FOR FURTHER 
DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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