ABIO10 PGTW 210230 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN REISSUED/210230Z-211800ZJAN2022// REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HAROR HI/210200ZJAN2022// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE. 2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 58.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS FEEDING INTO A FULLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 201819Z ASCAT METOP- C PASS INDICATED THE LLC IS CONSOLIDATED AND WELL DEFINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 30KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE NORTH AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 29-30C ARE ALSO FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 210200) FOR FURTHER DETAILS. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.// 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.// NNNN