ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.1S 59.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 58.6E, APPROXIMATELY 688 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH FORMATIVE BANDING FEEDING 
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) OFFSET FROM THE MAIN 
CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED EQUATORWARD. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THE 
LLC IS ELONGATED WITH ELEVATED WINDS UP TO 25KTS CONCENTRATED TO THE 
NORTHERN QUADRANT UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE LLC IS 
RIMMED WITH 05-10KT WIND BARBS, CORROBORATED BY A 191421Z SMAP PASS. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG WESTWARD AND EQUTORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM 
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30KT) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL 
TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR AS 
IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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