ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 17.9S 170.6W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.4S 172.0W, APPROXIMATELY 
103 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW SOME 
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN AND WESTER PERIPHERY OF AN EXPOSED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY LOW TO MODERATE (10-
15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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