ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZJAN2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 20.1S 167.1W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9S 170.6W, APPROXIMATELY 
217 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 190400Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW BANDS AND FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK. A 190300Z SURFACE OBSERVATION 
FROM NIUE, APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER, IS 
EASTERLY AT 17 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1001.4 MB. IN GENERAL, 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVORABLE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST AND A BROAD 
ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER STRAIGHT-LINE SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW. CONSEQUENTLY, DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS NEGLIGIBLE AND 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) THUS CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY WEAK. ANALYSIS OF THE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT 
REVEALS EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DOMINATING THE MID-UPPER 
LEVELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. GLOBAL 
MODELS (GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF) ARE NOW INDICATING THE SYSTEM WILL 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD, AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A 
DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST, TOWARD AMERICAN SAMOA 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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