WTPS32 PGTW 120300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 012// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (TIFFANY) WARNING NR 012 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 14.9S 135.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 135.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 15.0S 133.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 15.1S 130.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 15.4S 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 15.7S 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9S 134.7E. 12JAN22. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (TIFFANY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM ABOM INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER ARNHEM LAND, NORTHERN AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TRIANGULATION FROM MULTIPLE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE 112330Z PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL AND FROM THE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TC 06P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AND INCREASING VWS AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 24. THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WESTWARD THEN WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF BONAPARTE GULF AND BY TAU 48 WILL BE NEXT TO WYNDHAM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. NVGM AND ECMF ARE ON THE RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE TRACKING THE VORTEX JUST OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF AROUND TAU 30 BEFORE DRIVING IT BACK INLAND BY TAU 48. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION OR RETURN INTO WATER. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (CODY) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN