WTPS21 PGTW 082330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.6S 148.0E TO 13.8S 144.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS 
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 
082300Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 
147.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3S 147.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.7S 147.8E, APPROXIMATELY 
115 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BOUGAINVILLE REEF, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED CENTER. A 082010Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES 
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE 
WITH IMPROVED OUTER BANDING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15 
TO 20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SST). BOTH ECMWF (08/12Z) AND GFS (08/18Z) ARE NOW 
INDICATING A TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SYSTEM MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 
36 ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE CAPE YORK PENINSULA. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE  POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
092330Z.//
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